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UBS' Zhang Ning Forecasts CN Real GDP to Grow by 4.5-5% in Avg. Over Next 5 Yrs, Implying Relatively Clear & Moderate Growth
The 15th Five-Year Plan will be pivotal for China to achieve its long-term goal of reaching the per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, Zhang Ning, Senior C...
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UBS' Zhang Ning Forecasts CN Real GDP to Grow by 4.5-5% in Avg. Over Next 5 Yrs, Implying Relatively Clear & Moderate Growth
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The 15th Five-Year Plan will be pivotal for China to achieve its long-term goal of reaching the per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, Zhang Ning, Senior China Economist at UBS Investment Bank, said.
Market estimates suggest that, based on nominal GDP, the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country should be in a range of US$25,000 to US$30,000. To attain this objective, China must maintain robust nominal GDP growth over the next decade, averaging over 6% annually.
Therefore, Zhang anticipated that Chinese authorities will set targets for real GDP growth, price levels and the exchange rate of RMB. Of which, RMB is estimated to remain stable or even at a relatively strong level.
The implicit GDP growth target for the 15th Five-Year Plan period is basically projected to range between 4.5% and 5%, slightly lower than the 5-5.5% growth rate of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, remaining at a relatively clear and moderate growth range.
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