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瑞銀:預計今年底金價每安士5,500美元 短期或將維持波動
根據歐洲央行2026年6月發布的報告顯示,截至2025年底,黃金在其官方儲備中的佔比上升至27%,超過了美國國債的22%和歐元的15%。這一現象出現在各國央行持續大量購入黃金的背景下,同時今年金價上漲也推高了現有黃金持倉的價值。受金價走高影響,2025年歐央行淨購金規模放緩至約850噸,低於2024年約1,000噸的購入量。儲備多元化的趨勢依然穩固,儘管黃金...
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瑞銀:預計今年底金價每安士5,500美元 短期或將維持波動
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根據歐洲央行2026年6月發布的報告顯示,截至2025年底,黃金在其官方儲備中的佔比上升至27%,超過了美國國債的22%和歐元的15%。這一現象出現在各國央行持續大量購入黃金的背景下,同時今年金價上漲也推高了現有黃金持倉的價值。受金價走高影響,2025年歐央行淨購金規模放緩至約850噸,低於2024年約1,000噸的購入量。
儲備多元化的趨勢依然穩固,儘管黃金佔比超過美國國債這一資料,更多反映了價格上漲帶來的估值效應,而非央行儲備體系根本性轉變。瑞銀對黃金的中期前景仍持建設性觀點,理由包括儲備多元化、高企的公共債務水準,以及央行強勁的購金需求。2026年第二季度,各國央行的購金需求有望保持在200噸至250噸左右。不過,短期內金價或將維持波動,高企的實際收益率、更強勢的美元以及二季度ETF需求轉弱均對金價構成挑戰。該行預計2026年底金價將達每安士5,500美元。與此同時,較高的收益率將繼續提升高品質固定收益和貨幣市場工具的吸引力,投資者在等待更有利的宏觀環境之時可考慮將其作為配置選擇。
另外,瑞銀對私募股權持建設性態度,並認為亞洲是北美和歐洲核心配置的重要多元化補充。在區域內部,瑞銀更偏好保持廣泛的地理分散配置,並傾向於收購型投資,而非風險投資和成長策略,因其在回報穩定性和現金分配方面通常更具優勢。同時,收購策略也更有利於把握關鍵結構性主題,例如日本的公司治理改革,以及印度等市場的內需增長機會。從更廣泛的組合角度出發,該行繼續支持在資產類別、地域和行業層面的多元化配置,並優選具備較強營運增值能力的管理者。在估值趨於理性、增長前景逐步明朗的背景下,瑞銀預計亞洲私募市場仍有望吸引長期資本流入。投資者亦需關注私有市場的固有風險,包括透明度較低、鎖定期較長以及流動性不足。
瑞銀對於美國中期選舉的基準情景是分治國會,這樣的結果不會帶來重大政策變化,進而對市場核心驅動因素影響有限。美國現在雖為統一政權,但過去兩年真正影響市場的立法並不多。《美麗大法案》雖已通過,但其整體影響仍在評估中。同時,瑞銀預計,現任總統特朗普仍將通過行政權力在關稅、外交、放鬆監管及移民等領域持續施政,並不會因不同選舉結果下而發生變化。因此,從市場角度看,分治國會與此前兩年的環境應不會出現本質差異。
除財政政策外,推動本輪牛市的其他因素或仍將延續,企業盈利增長穩健,AI應用持續深化、帶動大型科技公司加大資本開支,以及貨幣政策仍處於偏寬鬆立場。隨著經濟增長可能溫和放緩,預計美聯儲或將在2026年末至27年初進行兩次降息。不過,若新任美聯儲主席凱文·沃什的政策立場發生變化,未來數月這一預測仍可能調整。
利率方面,美債收益率的主要驅動力依然是通脹預期與經濟基本面,但在中期選舉期間,政策不確定性可能導致收益率短期偏離基本面。儘管貨幣政策基本面仍是利率的主導因素,但不同政治格局下的政策優先事項,仍會影響債券市場對未來增長與通脹路徑的定價。(sl/u)
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