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《大行》高盛調整中國大宗商品及基本材料股盈利預測 上調煤炭股目標價
高盛發表大宗商品研究報告,更新了對中國基本材料及農業板塊的盈利預測,以反映年初至今的市場價格變動。該行微調了商品價格預測,其中鋼鐵、水泥、黃金及紙張板塊的盈利預測被下調,而銅和煤炭板塊則獲上調。在投資策略上,該行較為看好煤炭和銅,同時對鋁和鋰持審慎態度。鋼鐵及水泥板塊方面,高盛指出,雖然中國鋼鐵行業的「反內捲」努力和長期產能削減計劃仍然維持,但預期在2026...
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《大行》高盛調整中國大宗商品及基本材料股盈利預測 上調煤炭股目標價
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63
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高盛發表大宗商品研究報告,更新了對中國基本材料及農業板塊的盈利預測,以反映年初至今的市場價格變動。該行微調了商品價格預測,其中鋼鐵、水泥、黃金及紙張板塊的盈利預測被下調,而銅和煤炭板塊則獲上調。在投資策略上,該行較為看好煤炭和銅,同時對鋁和鋰持審慎態度。

鋼鐵及水泥板塊方面,高盛指出,雖然中國鋼鐵行業的「反內捲」努力和長期產能削減計劃仍然維持,但預期在2026年的產能和產量紀律執行方面將會延遲,因此低迷的利潤率可能持續。該行將馬鋼(00323.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $2.34M; Ratio 18.918%   2026年盈利預測下調12%至40%,H股目標價由2.5港元下調至2.2港元,維持「中性」評級。同時,預期鞍鋼(00347.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $1.71M; Ratio 22.447%   2026年的虧損將會由原本預期的40億元人民幣擴大至48億元人民幣,遂將其港股目標價由1.2港元下調至1.15港元,維持「沽售」評級。

水泥板塊因建築需求疲弱,第二季定價偏軟,但預期隨着中央加大基建融資支持,下半年需求將企穩。該行將海螺水泥(00914.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $44.79M; Ratio 30.640%   、金隅集團(02009.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $1.02M; Ratio 37.801%   、中國建材(03323.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $128.04M; Ratio 17.393%   及西部水泥(02233.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $2.97M; Ratio 3.629%   今年盈利預測降0%至9%,海螺水泥H股目標價由28港元降至27港元,維持「買入」評級。該行並維持中建材「買入」評級,目標價維持6港元。該行另維持金隅H股「中性」評級,目標價維持0.7港元;另重申西部水泥「沽售」評級,目標價1.1港元。高盛重申華潤建材科技(01313.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $3.23M; Ratio 19.864%   「中性」評級,目標價維持1.3港元。

高盛預期受到煤化工需求增加、進口減少以及強烈季節性因素推動,煤炭供求基本面維持正面。該行將秦皇島5500大卡動力煤2026年現貨價格預測每噸上調70元人民幣。相應將神華(01088.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $253.07M; Ratio 41.480%   、中煤(01898.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $26.91M; Ratio 10.330%   及兗礦能源(01171.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $54.88M; Ratio 11.500%   2026年盈利預測上調9%至17%,兗礦能源H股目標價由12.5港元上調至15港元,不過該行將兗礦能源(600188.SH)  -0.500 (-1.984%)   A股評級下調至「沽售」,目標價由16元人民幣上調至19元人民幣。神華H股目標價由40港元升至45港元,評級「中性」,中煤H股目標價由16港元升至18港元,評級「買入」。

金價方面,雖然高盛將2026年金價預測下調5%至每盎司4,809美元,但其全球商品團隊仍長線看好黃金。該行下調招金礦業(01818.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $15.62M; Ratio 5.696%   2026年盈利預測3%,目標價則由原先43港元降至42港元,但維持「買入」評級。該行重申紫金(02899.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $288.48M; Ratio 13.207%   「買入」評級,目標價51港元。

銅股方面,高盛上調五礦資源(01208.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $71.87M; Ratio 19.788%   目標價由13.5港元升至14港元,評級「買入」。該行維持江銅(00358.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $27.30M; Ratio 8.770%   及洛鉬(03993.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $104.69M; Ratio 16.564%   「買入」評級,兩者H股目標價分別45港元及25港元。

至於鋁業方面,高盛預期自2026年下半年起新產能擴張將會加速,鋁價差將逐步走向正常化。該行對中國鋁業(02600.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $100.60M; Ratio 19.150%   及中國宏橋(01378.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $211.30M; Ratio 20.457%   2026至2028年的盈測微降0%至1%。中國鋁業H股目標價維持12.5港元不變,重申「中性」評級;中國宏橋H股目標價亦維持34港元不變,評級「中性」。(ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-09 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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