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《預測》券商料渣打(02888.HK)首季業列賬基準稅前溢利近21億至逾22億美元 非利息收入支撐盈利
摩根士丹利近日報告料渣打(02888.HK)將於下周四(30日)公布首季業績,受市場波動推動財富管理等非利息收入推動,並抵銷本港銀行同業拆息下跌對淨利息收入影響,本網綜合3間券商預測,渣打今年首季列賬基準除稅前溢利料介乎20.95億至22.46億美元,對比2025年同期21.03億美元,按年下跌0.4%至上升6.8%。綜合3間券商預測,渣打首季列賬基準經營收...
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《預測》券商料渣打(02888.HK)首季業列賬基準稅前溢利近21億至逾22億美元 非利息收入支撐盈利
Recommend
5
Positive
7
Negative
3
 
 

摩根士丹利近日報告料渣打(02888.HK)  +0.900 (+0.486%)    Short selling $8.01M; Ratio 5.499%   將於下周四(30日)公布首季業績,受市場波動推動財富管理等非利息收入推動,並抵銷本港銀行同業拆息下跌對淨利息收入影響,本網綜合3間券商預測,渣打今年首季列賬基準除稅前溢利料介乎20.95億至22.46億美元,對比2025年同期21.03億美元,按年下跌0.4%至上升6.8%。

綜合3間券商預測,渣打首季列賬基準經營收入料介乎55.6億至56.74億美元,對比去年同期53.79億美元,按年上升3.4%至5.5%。綜合3間券商預測,渣打截至首季普通股權一級資本比率介乎13.7%至13.8%,對比去年同期13.8%,按年跌0.1個百分點至持平。

市場將聚焦幾個關鍵變數:第一是渣打管理層對淨利息收入是否見底及未來指引方向;第二是非利息收入能否持續對沖利率壓力;第三是信貸成本是否因新興市場風險而進一步上升。此外,渣打管理層對全年收入及回報目標的指引。

【市場關注下月投資者活動公布中期指引】

高盛預測及渣打(02888.HK)  +0.900 (+0.486%)    Short selling $8.01M; Ratio 5.499%   首季列賬基準營運收入按年升5%至56.35億美元,淨利息收入料按季跌約4%,受去年第四季本港銀行同業拆息高企於短暫利好因素影響,但仍較市場預期高3%。非淨利息收入方面,預測季度收入28億美元,較市場預測高出約1%。該行亦預期渣打首季減值增加,信貸成本率料為41個基點,按年升10個基點,帶動季度信貸成本比市場預測高約14%,某程度反映地緣政治不確定性加劇而作出的審慎撥備。但在2026至2028年的全年預測中,信貸成本率料將回復至35至36個基點正常水平。該行亦預測渣打季度列賬基準除稅前溢利按年升7%至22.5億美元。該行又指,在下月19日舉行的投資者活動上,渣打管理層將提供超越2026年的更詳細中期指引,該行現時預測2028年列賬基準有形股本回報率為16.1%,高於市場預期的15.4%。

摩根士丹利預測渣打季度列賬基準營運收入按年升6%至56.74億美元,列賬基準除稅前溢利按升6%至22.26億美元:該行預期渣打季績將由較高的非淨利息收入帶動。雖然一個月期本港銀行同業拆息按季跌約66個基點,為淨利息收入帶來下行壓力,但預期這將被市場波動帶動的強勁非淨利息收入抵銷。基於地緣政治風險及宏觀不確定性,該行預期首季或見提前確認信貸成本。該行又預期2026年減息時間被推遲一個季度。該行又指,5月份的投資者研討會將是下一個關鍵催化因素。


摩根大通指,該行就渣打業績有多項關注要點,包括重申淨利息收入指引;考慮到利率走勢波動,預期渣打現階段不調整淨利息收入指引,儘管利率期貨曲線顯示2026年平均預測利率較行預期高出約25個基點。以及受外匯及利率波動帶動,市場業務表現強勁;預測渣打市場業務收入增長1%,其中流動性收入按年增長10%,而偶發性收入則因去年同期基數較高而表現較弱。此外,在訪港旅客按年增長12%及本港新股上市活動強勁的背景下,財富管理業務持續有良好趨勢,但部分增長會被市場下跌導致投資情緒降溫抵銷。該行亦預期渣打首季減值將反映中東地區IFRS9撥備,為36個基點,略高於正常化水平。該行預測渣打季度列賬基準營運收入按年升3%至55.6億美元,列賬基準除稅前溢利按年跌0.4%至20.95億美元。

---------------------------------------------------------

本網綜合3間券商預測,渣打今年首季列賬基準除稅前溢利料介乎20.95億至22.46億美元,對比2025年同期21.03億美元,按年下跌0.4%至上升6.8%。

券商│今年首季列賬基準除稅前溢利預測│按年變幅
高盛│22.46億美元│+6.8%
大摩│22.26億美元│+5.8%
摩根大通│20.95億美元│-0.4%
按渣打2025年首季列賬基準除稅前溢利21.03億美元計算
---------------------------------------------------------

綜合3間券商預測,渣打首季列賬基準經營收入料介乎55.6億至56.74億美元,對比去年同期53.79億美元,按年上升3.4%至5.5%。

券商│今年首季列賬基準經營收入預測│按年變幅
大摩│56.74億美元│+5.5%
高盛│56.35億美元│+4.8%
摩根大通│55.6億美元│+3.4%
按渣打2025年首季列賬基準經營收入53.79億美元計算
---------------------------------------------------------


本網綜合3間券商預測,渣打截至首季普通股權一級資本比率介乎13.7%至13.8%,對比去年同期13.8%,按年跌0.1個百分點至持平。

券商│今年首季普通股權一級資本比率│按年變幅
高盛│13.8%│持平
摩根士丹利│13.7%│-0.1個百分點
摩根大通│13.7%│-0.1個百分點
按渣打2025年首季普通股權一級充足率13.8%計算

(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-28 16:25.)

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