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《大行》大摩:市場嚴重低估AI爆發力 料算力與電力需求缺口持續擴大
摩根士丹利發表報告指,目前市場可能嚴重低估AI革命的實際爆發力與深度。頂尖大語言模型(LLM)正經歷「非線性的能力躍升」,AI爆炸式增長正踫上系統性的供應瓶頸,全球算力與電力需求缺口,將面臨長期及持續的擴大。報告引用數據顯示,今年首季全球每星期Token使用量暴增250%至22.7萬億,部分LLM供應商已為用戶的使用量設限。大摩預測,未來的算力需求增速將是英...
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《大行》大摩:市場嚴重低估AI爆發力 料算力與電力需求缺口持續擴大
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摩根士丹利發表報告指,目前市場可能嚴重低估AI革命的實際爆發力與深度。頂尖大語言模型(LLM)正經歷「非線性的能力躍升」,AI爆炸式增長正踫上系統性的供應瓶頸,全球算力與電力需求缺口,將面臨長期及持續的擴大。

報告引用數據顯示,今年首季全球每星期Token使用量暴增250%至22.7萬億,部分LLM供應商已為用戶的使用量設限。大摩預測,未來的算力需求增速將是英偉達(NVDA.US)      預測年複合供應增長的3倍,料算力短缺情況將持續,並會更激烈。隨著新一代晶片推出,將使AI運算成本大幅下降,需求端將進一步噴發,意味晶片製造、光通訊及資料中心設備等算力供應商,將迎來長期的結構性利好。

另外,能源亦正成為制約AI發展的「定時炸彈」。該行估計2025至2028年美國數據中心將面臨約55吉瓦的電力缺口。即使採用天然氣、燃料電池或核電等替代方案,淨缺口仍可能高達總部署規模的18%至30%,情況已經迫使Meta等科技巨頭開始跨界投資核能等電力基礎設施,以確保算力命脈。

另外,AI對勞動力市場的衝擊已經浮現。該行的調查顯示,在受AI影響最深的5大行業,包括消費品零售、房地產管理與開發、交通運輸、醫療設備與服務、汽車與零部件,過去一年有11%的職位被裁,有12%的職位懸空而未有再招聘;綜合淨裁員率約達4%,預計未來90%的職業都將受AI自動化影響。不過,AI帶來的成本削減,其對應的經濟價值估計將超過標普500指數2026年預期稅前利潤的25%。(ss/da)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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