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《大行》富瑞:Anthropic Fable 5登頂全球排行榜 中美AI智能差距擴大至13%
富瑞發表報告指,Anthropic的Fable/Mythos 5已登上全球模型智能排行榜第一名,將中美AI智能差距從8%擴大至13%。由於運算資源差異,差距可能進一步拉大。Fable/Mythos 5具備「防蒸餾」(anti-distillation)功能,並已納入美國出口管制,這可能讓中國開源模型更難追趕。同時,Anthropic大幅將 API價格翻倍,而...
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《大行》富瑞:Anthropic Fable 5登頂全球排行榜 中美AI智能差距擴大至13%
Recommend
71
Positive
105
Negative
62
 
 

富瑞發表報告指,Anthropic的Fable/Mythos 5已登上全球模型智能排行榜第一名,將中美AI智能差距從8%擴大至13%。由於運算資源差異,差距可能進一步拉大。Fable/Mythos 5具備「防蒸餾」(anti-distillation)功能,並已納入美國出口管制,這可能讓中國開源模型更難追趕。同時,Anthropic大幅將 API價格翻倍,而中國定價持續下滑,這在硬體成本暴漲的背景下並不健康。

該行認為,運算資源差異是因為美國AI實驗室能更充足地取得先進AI晶片,NVIDIA(NVDA.US)      Blackwell系列。雖然部分中國AI模型也在海外使用NVIDIA晶片訓練,但中國企業能取得的先進美國AI 晶片數量,預計仍遠低於美國同行。隨著NVIDIA將在2026年下半年開始出貨下一代Rubin晶片,中美之間的運算差距可能進一步擴大,智能模型差距也可能隨之拉大。

不過,即便如此,該行認為目前中國AI模型的表現已足以商業化應用。更大的隱憂是API定價持續下滑,同時硬體成本卻大幅上升。Anthropic已將Fable 5的API價格較Opus 4.8翻倍。從3月到6月,美國平均API定價上漲89%,部分原因是硬體成本上升。然而,中國的API定價卻維持平穩,6月更因 MiniMax(00100.HK)  +27.800 (+7.020%)    Short selling $44.89M; Ratio 2.118%   減價33%而按月減2%。

該行指,隨著記憶體成本大幅上升,以及中國使用華為「Logic Folding」技術自製AI晶片的成本可能更高,硬體成本將持續攀升。該行指見要看到API定價上漲,同時token消耗量亦要持續暴增,才能支撐AI 達到可接受的投資報酬率。因此,中國AI實驗室之間的價格競爭,目前是其最大關注點。(ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-15 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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