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《大行》高盛微降滙控(00005.HK)目標價至160元 展望在高度不確定因素下備受關注
高盛發表報告表示,滙豐控股(00005.HK)將於5月5日公布今年首季業績,預期該行基礎稅前利潤97億美元,按年持平(按季升14%),主要受收入增長4%支持,其中銀行淨利息收入按年增長7%,非銀行淨利息收入按年增長1%。不過,考慮到當前環境,該行預期滙控將在撥備上採取更保守立場,額外的疊加將使信貸成本升至51個基點。本季度投資者焦點將集中在管理層對伊朗戰爭後...
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《大行》高盛微降滙控(00005.HK)目標價至160元 展望在高度不確定因素下備受關注
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高盛發表報告表示,滙豐控股(00005.HK)  +0.800 (+0.576%)    Short selling $374.19M; Ratio 15.991%   將於5月5日公布今年首季業績,預期該行基礎稅前利潤97億美元,按年持平(按季升14%),主要受收入增長4%支持,其中銀行淨利息收入按年增長7%,非銀行淨利息收入按年增長1%。

不過,考慮到當前環境,該行預期滙控將在撥備上採取更保守立場,額外的疊加將使信貸成本升至51個基點。本季度投資者焦點將集中在管理層對伊朗戰爭後地緣政治風險升高的評估,以及其對油價、利率、匯率和風險情緒的影響。儘管短期波動加劇,該行仍預期滙控展現盈利韌性和資產負債表的保守性。季度表現之外,關鍵問題在於滙控管理層能否在全球不確定性升高的背景下重申2026年指引。

銀行淨利息收入方面,首季將面臨短期逆風,因HIBOR平均按季下降約70個基點,加上美聯儲局於2025年第四季度降息,該行估計銀行淨利息收入按季下降4%至113億美元(按年仍增長7%)。不過,「高利率維持更久」的全球環境及更陡峭的收益率曲線,應繼續支持結構性對沖再投資及資產負債表再定價。雖然HIBOR下跌是短期拖累,但該行將關注管理層是否仍對2026年銀行NII指引保持信心,或指出潛在上行空間。

雖然部分投資者預期滙控或於首季業績後重啟回購,但該行仍認為公布第二季業績後才會進行。該行將滙控2026至2029財年的每股盈利預測下調最多2%,主要反映外匯因素推高營運成本,更新後的基礎成本約338億美元。該行重申對滙控「買入」評級,目標價由162港元輕微下調至160港元。

高盛下調滙控今年每股派息預測由0.85美元降至0.83美元、2027年每股派息預測由0.94美元降至0.92美元、2028年每股派息預測由1美元降至0.99美元。(wl/u)
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-10 16:25.)

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