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《大行》瑞銀料中國平安(02318.HK)首季新業務價值按年增長20% 估值具吸引力
中國平安(02318.HK)午後上揚,最新報63.2元升2.5%。瑞銀發表報告表示,中國平安(02318.HK)將於4月28日將公布今年首季業績,估計集團稅後營運溢利按年增長5%,主要由壽險、資管和銀行業務帶動。壽險稅後營運利潤相比往年呈改善趨勢,因為(1)新業務合約服務邊際(CSM)受益於利率更穩定,(2)保險資管規模持續擴大。從中信証券(06030.HK...
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《大行》瑞銀料中國平安(02318.HK)首季新業務價值按年增長20% 估值具吸引力
Recommend
12
Positive
12
Negative
5
 
 

中國平安(02318.HK)  +1.600 (+2.595%)    Short selling $621.97M; Ratio 36.627%   午後上揚,最新報63.2元升2.5%。瑞銀發表報告表示,中國平安(02318.HK)  +1.600 (+2.595%)    Short selling $621.97M; Ratio 36.627%   將於4月28日將公布今年首季業績,估計集團稅後營運溢利按年增長5%,主要由壽險、資管和銀行業務帶動。壽險稅後營運利潤相比往年呈改善趨勢,因為(1)新業務合約服務邊際(CSM)受益於利率更穩定,(2)保險資管規模持續擴大。從中信証券(06030.HK)  -0.060 (-0.223%)    Short selling $22.11M; Ratio 7.711%   初步首季除稅後盈利按年增長55%,對平安證券(資管子公司)形成正面參照。平安銀行(000001.SZ)  +0.100 (+0.903%)   似乎正按指引恢復盈利增長。料集團除稅後盈利按年下降中高個位數,主要受股市疲弱拖累(如滬深300指數下跌3.9%;對比2025年首季下跌1.2%)。由於股票持倉中FVOCI(以公允價值計量且其變動計入其他綜合收益的金融資產)比例較高(2025年為57%;主要同業為19%至37%),且基數較低,平安稅後盈利相對更具韌性。

展望未來,該行預期中國平安稅後營運溢利按年增速將加快,並預測2026年增長10%。

該行估計中國平安2026年首季新業務價值按年增長20%,增長異常強勁,主要受以下因素推動:(1)存款遷移趨勢、(2)多渠道策略、以及(3)「開門紅」銷售(jumpstart sales)。與此同時,料公司利潤按年比下降,反映出:(1)產品組合轉變以迎合不斷演變的客戶需求(如分紅產品/短期儲蓄),以及 (2)2025年底精算假設的不利變化(如更高股權配置的資本成本、醫療通脹、退保)。在財險業務方面,該行預期綜合成本率按年下降0.5個百分點至96.1%,主要受益於:(1)成本和營運效率改善,以及(2)自然災害損失可能減少。

該行認為中國平安估值頗具吸引力,未來12個月市賬率0.87倍、市佔營運利潤比6.2倍、2026年股息率5.3%,料其2025至2030年後營運溢利的複合年均增長率為10%。2026年股息率(H股)為5.3%,且股息政策明確。該行維持對其目標價88元,評級「買入」。(wl/j)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-14 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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