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<Research>CMS: TPs for Alibaba/ Meituan/ JD.com Cut as Intensified Competition Dents Earnings Visibility
Recommend 24 Positive 36 Negative 17 |
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Intensified competition in China's e-commerce sector reduced earnings visibility, China Merchants Securities (CMS) released a research report saying. As the summer peak season approaches, leading platforms increased subsidies beyond prior expectations. BABA-W (09988.HK) launched a subsidy plan totaling RMB50 billion, and initiated a series of weekend promotional activities on its Taobao Instant Commerce and Ele.me platforms, boosting single-day order volume to 80 million on 5 July, setting a new high. MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) subsequently launched related promotional activities, with peak orders reaching 120 million on the same day. JD-SW (09618.HK) reported instant delivery orders of approximately 20 million, and later announced a merchant subsidy plan of RMB10 billion. The broker lowered its FY2026/2027 non-GAAP net profit forecasts for BABA-W by 23%/ 6% each, and reduced its target price for Alibaba Group (BABA.US) from US$176 to US$146, as it remained optimistic about BABA-W on its stable cloud business outlook, with leading market share and technical capabilities. CMS lowered its FY2025/2026 non-GAAP net profit forecasts for MEITUAN-W by 14%/ 3% respectively, and chopped its target price from $177 to $156, still believing that MEITUAN-W will maintain its market leadership, though some market share may be eroded by competitors in a fiercely competitive environment. The broker also lowered its FY2025/2026 non-GAAP net profit forecasts for JD-SW by 39%/ 17% each, and slashed its target price for JD.com (JD.US) from US$54 to US$42. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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