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<Research>Citi: CN 6M25 Online Retail Sales Hike by 8.5%; E-commerce w/ Stronger Exposure in 'Trade-in' Categories Expected to Outperform Peers in 2Q GMV
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BABA-W (09988.HK) expanded its gains after midday, and last printed at $113.6, swelling 7.1%, with a turnover of $20.68 billion. Nvidia (NVDA.US) announced this morning (15th) plans to resume sales of H20 chips to China, as it has been informed by the US government that export licenses for H20 chips will be granted.

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced retail data for June this morning, Citi Research issued a research report saying. The total retail sales of social consumer goods for June amounted to RMB4.23 trillion, up 4.8% YoY from 6.4% in May.

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In 1H25, the national online retail sales amounted to RMB7.43 trillion, up 8.5% YoY, consistent with the growth rate of 5M25, but lower than the 9.8% in June 2024.

From the June retail sales data, the broker saw a few implications, including strong demand for home appliances and electronics continued to benefit from the trade-in program; e-commerce platforms with stronger exposure to trade-in categories may have outperformed peers in GMV during the 618 event and 2Q25.

Citi Research forecasted BABA-W's quarterly CMR to be RMB88.4 billion, up 10.3% YoY. For Vipshop (VIPS.US), the broker predicted its 2Q25 revenue to decline by 4.5% YoY.

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Therefore, Citi Research reiterated rating at Buy on BABA-W, with a target price of $144.
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